Bias roulette: the method to profit from it

Bias Wheel Attack is a strategy of beating 711kelab login roulette wheel by addressing its inevitable physical imperfections. It is almost impossible for a man to make a perfect machine. The roulette wheel is made of wood and metal and prone to wear and tear over time.

In addition, the wheel is operated by a human being who can also contribute to the imperfect functioning of the wheel. Additionally, roulette wheels are incredibly expensive machines and therefore casinos prefer to accept small imperfections to make them last longer (as long as they don’t spot anyone making a systematic profit because of these imperfections!).

The perfect roulette wheel must be perfectly balanced, the boxes evenly lined and structured, the walls uniformly resistant to wear and tear, and the dealers unable to consciously or subconsciously control the ball. It is almost impossible for an active wheel to stay perfect in the long term, it is more natural for it to gradually deviate from perfectly random results in the long term. A slight groove invisible to the naked eye will suffice for the ball to stop more often in one box than in others.

Over time, the groove gets deeper and deeper as the ball goes through it. That is, small imperfections will likely get worse over time.

The biased wheel strategy aims to spot these imperfections and exploit the positive probabilities of certain outcomes on biased wheels.

Time the wheel Bias wheels should not have obvious flaws that could be detected during traditional inspections and tune-ups. They are by nature invisible to the naked eye. You need to spot them statistically, by timing the wheel. This involves observing a wheel and recording the observations. You can then see if the true probabilities are much different from the expected probability of a perfect wheel. On a European roulette wheel, each number should come out 1 in 37 times. The House pays 1 in 35 so numbers that come out more than 1 in 35 times will have a positive expected value.

For example, if by timing a wheel out of 1,000 observations, you find that Black 26 has come out 1 out of 30 times.

Whatever the physical imperfections, black 26 comes out 1 in 30 instead of 1 in 37. In other words, you have found a wheel with a bias in favor of black 26. If you bet € 10 on the Black 26 over the last 1,000 spins, your win will be € 1,996. By going out about 1 in 30, Black 26 will be out 33 times and lose 967 times. You will therefore have won € 11,550 (€ 10 * € 35 * 33) and lost € 9,670 (€ 10 * 967), obtaining a final gain of € 1,996 (€ 11,550 – € 9,670). Note that: Betting larger amounts will result in larger long term payouts but in the short term it will also result in larger amounts of euros changing hands. So if you want to bet more, you need to make sure that you have larger funds available for short term hand changes.

The question you need to ask yourself is, will this roulette wheel show a bias for black 26 over the next 1000 spins.

The Central Limit Theorem states that the larger the number of observations, the closer you get to the real probabilities kelab88. In other words, the more numbers you collect, the more accurate your assessment of bias will be. Following the example above, you might find in the first 100 observations that Red 14 came out 1 in 25 times but in the next 900 observations, Red 14 came out less often and eventually presented an overall probability. 1 in 36. So if you had only made 100 observations and thought the wheel was skewed in favor of Red 14, you would have wasted your money in the next 900 spins. Short-term deviations and fluctuations are normal. By timing a wheel over a very large number of observations, you are trying to eliminate short-term random fluctuations from real long-term probabilities. So the rule of thumb is this: the more numbers you collect the better.

This is why casinos gladly let players enter the numbers for a short time, so that they bet on illusions of short-term motives. But if you sit at a table and write the numbers for 8 hours every day for 2 weeks, the casinos will really start to get excited!).

Personally, I also want to verify that the bias makes sense. We are looking for biases caused by certain physical imperfections. These imperfections are unlikely to be skewed in favor of a single number. A loose bulkhead could curb the ball making it more likely that the numbers behind will come out more often too. You should therefore verify that the numbers surrounding the potentially biased number also come out more often than expected. So if Black 26 comes out 1 in 30 and we see Red 3 and 0 come out 1 in 32, then we can be more certain that there is a physical defect on the roulette wheel.

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First viable proof of roulette

Documents indicate that roulette appeared in the 18th century. As with many games, the first mentions are provided in legal documents banning the game. A mention appeared in the regulations for the new country of “New France”, later renamed Canada. The decree, dated 1758, specifically prohibits playing “dice, hoca, faro and roulette”. English Law 18 Geo. He provides the first mention of the word in 1745: “And while certain pernicious games called Roulette or Roly-Poly are played daily… No place should be used to play these roulette or Roly-Poly games”.

The first mention of EO appeared almost at the same time ”“ in 1750. Interestingly, Strutt in 1801 mentions both EO and “Roulette” but the “current EO tables” are only briefly. cited and it is clear that this is a well known game while “Roulette” is only cited from a previous law and Strutt, who we know was familiar with games in England, incorrectly deduced that it was a card game. A sports magazine from the same period (1808) designated “Roulette” as a “foreign game”. This author deduces that roulette disappeared or that it became very rare in England at the beginning of the 19th century and that it was indeed replaced by the EO for a time. However in the middle of the 19th century,

What is Roly Poly?

The very first mention in the OED of one of these games appears in 1713 when Arbuthnot John Bull writes: “Let’s start with entertaining: what do you think of a Rouly-Pouly or a country dance? “But this hypothesis must be ruled out because Arbuthnot was Scottish and the 1894 edition of the Brewers Dictionary of Phrase and Fable tells us that” in parts of Scotland the nine-pins game was also called rouly-pouly. “

The first real mention therefore dates from 1730 in a letter from the Countess of Suffolk: “The Duchess of Marlborough decides to lose her money at roly-poly. »Mention which does not provide us with any information on the rules of the game.

A book entitled “The Fatal Effects of Gambling”, dated 1824, has a section entitled “Description of the newly introduced game of Roulette or Roly Poly” (Description of the recent game of roulette or Roly -Poly), implying that it is one and the same game.

But in “Amusements of old London Vol.1” Boulton says the EO “originated from the mainland” ¦ “At the time whist was becoming popular” – he previously said this happened around 1742 and added “the Roly Poly, as the game was commonly called” ¦ ”. If it is true that Roly Poly and EO were one and the same game, then EO could claim to be the ancestor of roulette but the appearance of Roly Poly at this time seems to contradict the fact that it This was a well-known game in 1730 and therefore the credibility of this claim seems uncertain.

This author therefore concludes that it is more likely that Roulette arrived in England from France at the beginning of the 18th century when it was initially called Roly Poly. After its ban in 1745, the similar game of EO seemed to circumvent these laws, and roulette / Roly Poly had all but disappeared by 1800, having been effectively replaced by EO.But EO in turn disappeared in favor of a resurgent roulette in 1875.

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